Saturday, 5 November 2016

As the race for America's president continues polls show Hillary in unsafe lead

As the race continues for America to pick their 45th President, some voters are still undecided. The recent email case of Hillary Clinton which the FBI re-opened has not helped her in anyway.
Instead they have hampered a former comfortable lead she had over Trump. Only time will tell how the results go. And that time will be on Tuesday, November 8.

The NewYorkTimes reports that the race has tightened over the last week  after the latest news about  Clinton’s emails, show that she still holds a modest lead over Donald J. Trump.
So the polls offer clarity on perhaps the most important question: whether Mrs. Clinton still has the edge after news of the letter to Congress from James Comey, the F.B.I. director. She does.

But they haven’t offered much clarity on many of the other issues that might give  a better sense of just how vulnerable her lead might be.
The new polls make a wide range of outcomes — from a decisive win for Mrs. Clinton to a narrow win for Mr. Trump — seem within the realm of possibility.

 Mrs. Clinton’s lead is clear, and probably sits around three points in national polls — including a New York Times/CBS News survey out on Thursday and the ABC News/Washington Post tracker.
A three-point lead is enough to make Mrs. Clinton a clear favorite, but it’s not a particularly strong advantage. It would take only a fairly typical polling error for the national popular vote to end up deadlocked.

 Mr. Trump has taken more of a lead in the red states. A few recent polls in Utah show him stretching out a more comfortable lead over Evan McMullin, a conservative candidate unaffiliated with a party, and Mrs. Clinton.
Polls also show Mr. Trump taking a wide lead in Missouri and Indiana, two states that have been on the fringe of competitiveness when Mrs. Clinton has been well ahead, and a more comfortable lead in Texas.

But Mr. Trump hasn’t taken a wide lead in Arizona and Georgia.
The strength of Mrs. Clinton’s firewall — the states carried by John Kerry in 2004, plus New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado — is less clear. It’s certainly looking worse for her now than it has for most of the year.

There were several polls on Thursday showing a very close race, even a slight lead for Mr. Trump, in New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia — states where Mrs. Clinton had led nearly every poll this year.

Mrs. Clinton has had better news in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states with large numbers of white working-class Democrats.
In principle, there isn’t anything especially surprising about the possibility that some polls would show a slight lead for Mr. Trump in Colorado or New Hampshire if Mrs. Clinton was indeed ahead by a modest margin. But Mrs. Clinton’s lead has been so consistent that any departure from the trend is noticeable.

Mrs Clinton's lead rose to around eight points after she won the Democratic nomination, and also after the Democratic convention and the subsequent spate between Mr. Trump and the family of Capt. Humayun Khan. It also rose to around that level in the middle of October, after Mrs. Clinton was thought to have won the first debate and a recording revealed Mr. Trump bragging about groping women.

In most of those cases, Mrs. Clinton’s numbers fell more than Mr. Trump’s numbers rose.
This time, the story is a little different: Mrs. Clinton’s numbers have slipped only slightly — say, from 46 percent to 45 percent — while Mr. Trump’s numbers have risen from their lows to around 42 percent. This may reflect that more voters have come to their final decision over the last month or so.

Voters diminished enthusiasm or support for her Mrs Clinton might mean that they simply won’t vote at all. But it may suggest that there’s more upside than downside for Mrs. Clinton at this point.


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